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Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, et al. v. Ryan Karnoski, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 18-35347

Certiorari denied · January 22, 2019

Pre-decision estimate: 46% cert probability (95% interval 33%–60%)

Before the decision, about 11.1× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for a federal-government petitioner and counsel who has won certiorari before.

Question presented

In 2018, Secretary of Defense James Mattis announced a new policy concerning military service by transgender individuals. Under the Mattis policy, transgender individuals would be permitted to serve in the military, while individuals with a history of a medical condition called gender dysphoria would be disqualified from military service unless they meet certain conditions. The question presented is: Whether the district court erred in preliminarily enjoining the military from implementing the Mattis policy nationwide. (I)

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Noel John Francisco
Jones Day

For respondent
Stephen Ray Patton
Kirkland & Ellis, LLP

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 2 conferences

Amicus briefs
1 cert-stage

Linked docket
18A625

Proceedings

Jan 22 2019
Motion for leave to file amicus brief filed by Foundation for Moral Law GRANTED.
Jan 22 2019
Application (18A625) referred to the Court.
Jan 22 2019
Petition DENIED.
Jan 22 2019
Application (18A625) granted by the Court. The application for stay presented to Justice Kagan and by her referred to the Court is granted, and the District Court’s December 11, 2017 order granting a preliminary injunction is stayed pending disposition of the Government’s appeal in the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit and disposition of the Government’s petition for a writ of certiorari, if such writ is sought. If a writ of certiorari is sought and the Court denies the petition, this order shall terminate automatically. If the Court grants the petition for a writ of certiorari, this order shall terminate when the Court enters its judgment. Justice Ginsburg, Justice Breyer, Justice Sotomayor, and Justice Kagan would deny the application.
Jan 14 2019
DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 1/18/2019.
Jan 09 2019
Response to Petitioner's January 4, 2019 Letter of Ryan Karnoski, et al. not accepted for filing. (January 10, 2019 -To be re-submitted as a supplemental brief in compliance with Rule 33.1)
Jan 09 2019
Supplemental brief of respondents Ryan Karnoski, et al. filed. (Distributed)
Jan 04 2019
Reply of applicant Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, et al. filed.
Jan 04 2019
Reply of petitioners Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, et al. filed. VIDED. (Distributed)
Jan 04 2019
Letter of petitioners Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, et al. filed. VIDED. (Distributed)
Dec 28 2018
Joint response to application from respondents filed.
Dec 26 2018
DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 1/11/2019.
Dec 26 2018
Brief of respondents Ryan Karnoski, et al. in opposition filed. (Distributed)
Dec 24 2018
Brief of Egeler, Anne Elizabeth State of Washington in opposition filed. (Distributed)
Dec 21 2018
Motion for leave to file amicus brief filed by Foundation for Moral Law. (Distributed)
Dec 19 2018
Brief amicus curiae of Eagle Forum Education & Legal Defense Fund filed.VIDED
Dec 13 2018
Application (18A625) for a stay, submitted to Justice Kagan.
Dec 13 2018
Response to application (18A625) requested by Justice Kagan, due Friday, December 28, 2018, by noon ET.
Nov 23 2018
Petition for a writ of certiorari before judgment filed. (Response due December 24, 2018)