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Doug Lair, et al. v. Jeff Mangan, in His Official Capacity as Commissioner of Political Practices, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 16-35424 · judgment October 23, 2017

Certiorari denied · January 14, 2019
Pre-decision estimate: 6% cert probability (95% interval 4%–8%)

Before the decision, modestly above the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for a Ninth Circuit decision below, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition).

Questions presented

Montana law imposes two types of candidate campaign contribution limits per election, which are among the lowest in the Nation. The Base Limits restrict individual or political committee candidate contributions to the following: governor/lieutenant governor ($680), other statewide office ($340), and all other candidates ($180), and the Aggregate Limits restrict candidate contributions from all political party entities in aggregate to the following: governor/ lieutenant governor ($24,500), other statewide office ($8,850), public service commission ($3,550), senate ($1,450), and all other candidates ($900). Petitioners present two questions:

  1. Whether Montana’s base candidate contribution limits on individual and political committees are unconstitutional under the First Amendment.

  2. Whether Montana’s aggregate candidate contribution limits from all political party entities are unconstitutional under the First Amendment. (i)

Counsel of record

For petitioner
James Bopp Jr.
The Bopp Law Firm, PC

For respondent
Dale Michael Schowengerdt
Landmark Law, PLLC

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 3 conferences

Amicus briefs
4 cert-stage

Proceedings

  1. Jan 14 2019
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Jan 07 2019
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 1/11/2019.
  3. Jan 03 2019
    Rescheduled.
  4. Nov 28 2018
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 1/4/2019.
  5. Nov 27 2018
    Reply of petitioners Doug Lair, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  6. Nov 14 2018
    Brief of respondents Jeff Mangan, et al. in opposition filed.
  7. Oct 16 2018
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including November 14, 2018.
  8. Oct 10 2018
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from October 15, 2018 to November 14, 2018, submitted to The Clerk.
  9. Sep 14 2018
    Response Requested. (Due October 15, 2018)
  10. Sep 05 2018
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/24/2018.
  11. Sep 04 2018
    Brief amicus curiae of WIsconsin Institute for Law & Liberty filed.
  12. Sep 04 2018
    Brief amicus curiae of Institute for Free Speech filed. (Distributed)
  13. Sep 04 2018
    Amicus brief of The Legacy Foundation not accepted for filing. (September 11, 2018) Attorney submitted brief three times.
  14. Sep 04 2018
    Amicus brief of The Legacy Foundation not accepted for filing. (September 11, 2018) Attorney submitted brief three times.
  15. Sep 04 2018
    Brief amicus curiae of The Legacy Foundation filed. (Distributed)
  16. Aug 31 2018
    Waiver of right of respondent Jeff Mangan, et al. to respond filed.
  17. Aug 24 2018
    Brief amicus curiae of Public Policy Legal Institute filed.
  18. Jul 30 2018
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 4, 2018)