Home › Arguments › California v. Texas No. 19-840 · argued November 10, 2020
California, et al., Petitioners v. Texas, et al. Michael J. Mongan for the petitionersDonald B. Verrilli Kyle D. Hawkins for the respondentsJeffrey B. Wall for the respondents
Post-argument lean From the argument alone, before the decision
The transcript could not be divided between the two sides — an advocate whose side neither the transcript nor the case captions settle, or a header the parser could not read — so there is no lean for this argument.
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From the Court’s official transcript .
October Term 2020, lean against result Each dot an argument; click one to open it
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% usual 70% Petitioner won Edward A. Caniglia v. Robert F. Strom (No. 20-157): lean 56%, petitioner won TransUnion LLC v. Sergio L. Ramirez (No. 20-297): lean 68%, petitioner won Manfredo M. Salinas v. United States Railroad Retirement Board (No. 19-199): lean 68%, petitioner won Donald J. Trump, President of the United States v. New York (No. 20-366): lean 69%, petitioner won Tae D. Johnson, Acting Director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement v. Maria Angelica Guzman Chavez (No. 19-897): lean 69%, petitioner won Willie Earl Carr v. Andrew M. Saul, Commissioner of Social Security (No. 19-1442): lean 70%, petitioner won Cedar Point Nursery v. Victoria Hassid (No. 20-107): lean 70%, petitioner won Google LLC v. Oracle America, Inc. (No. 18-956): lean 71%, petitioner won Douglas Brownback v. James King (No. 19-546): lean 71%, petitioner won Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System (No. 20-222): lean 73%, petitioner won Minerva Surgical, Inc. v. Hologic, Inc. (No. 20-440): lean 73%, petitioner won Merrick B. Garland, Attorney General v. Ming Dai (No. 19-1155): lean 73%, petitioner won Charles Borden, Jr. v. United States (No. 19-5410): lean 73%, petitioner won Federal Communications Commission v. Prometheus Radio Project (No. 19-1231): lean 74%, petitioner won Nathan Van Buren v. United States (No. 19-783): lean 75%, petitioner won United States v. Arthrex, Inc. (No. 19-1434): lean 75%, petitioner won Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Rob Bonta, Attorney General of California (No. 19-251): lean 76%, petitioner won Territory of Guam v. United States (No. 20-382): lean 76%, petitioner won AMG Capital Management, LLC v. Federal Trade Commission (No. 19-508): lean 76%, petitioner won Leslie Rutledge, Attorney General of Arkansas v. Pharmaceutical Care Management Association (No. 18-540): lean 76%, petitioner won Facebook, Inc. v. Noah Duguid (No. 19-511): lean 76%, petitioner won John C. Carney, Governor of Delaware v. James R. Adams (No. 19-309): lean 77%, petitioner won Mark Brnovich, Attorney General of Arizona v. Democratic National Committee (No. 19-1257): lean 77%, petitioner won BP p.l.c. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore (No. 19-1189): lean 78%, petitioner won United States v. Michael J. D. Briggs (No. 19-108): lean 78%, petitioner won United States v. Refugio Palomar-Santiago (No. 20-437): lean 79%, petitioner won HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v. Renewable Fuels Association (No. 20-472): lean 79%, petitioner won United States v. Joshua James Cooley (No. 19-1414): lean 79%, petitioner won Janet L. Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation (No. 20-543): lean 80%, petitioner won Patrick J. Collins v. Janet L. Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury (No. 19-422): lean 80%, petitioner won United States Fish and Wildlife Service v. Sierra Club, Inc. (No. 19-547): lean 80%, petitioner won Agusto Niz-Chavez v. Merrick B. Garland, Attorney General (No. 19-863): lean 81%, petitioner won CIC Services, LLC v. Internal Revenue Service (No. 19-930): lean 82%, petitioner won PennEast Pipeline Company, LLC v. New Jersey (No. 19-1039): lean 82%, petitioner won Republic of Hungary v. Rosalie Simon (No. 18-1447): lean 83%, petitioner won Chike Uzuegbunam v. Stanley C. Preczewski (No. 19-968): lean 83%, petitioner won Nestlé USA, Inc. v. John Doe I (No. 19-416): lean 83%, petitioner won Roxanne Torres v. Janice Madrid (No. 19-292): lean 84%, petitioner won City of Chicago, Illinois v. Robbin L. Fulton (No. 19-357): lean 84%, petitioner won Sharonell Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (No. 19-123): lean 84%, petitioner won United States v. Michael Andrew Gary (No. 20-444): lean 85%, petitioner won Federal Republic of Germany v. Alan Philipp (No. 19-351): lean 86%, petitioner won Respondent won National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Shawne Alston (No. 20-512): lean 62%, respondent won Brett Jones v. Mississippi (No. 18-1259): lean 63%, respondent won Ford Motor Company v. Montana Eighth Judicial District Court (No. 19-368): lean 64%, respondent won Thedrick Edwards v. Darrel Vannoy, Warden (No. 19-5807): lean 65%, respondent won Jose Santos Sanchez, et ux. v. Alejandro N. Mayorkas, Secretary of Homeland Security (No. 20-315): lean 69%, respondent won Gregory Greer v. United States (No. 19-8709): lean 72%, respondent won City of San Antonio, Texas, On Behalf of Itself and All Other Similarly Situated Texas Municipalities v. Hotels.com, L.P. (No. 20-334): lean 73%, respondent won FNU Tanzin v. Muhammad Tanvir (No. 19-71): lean 74%, respondent won Mahanoy Area School District v. B. L., a Minor, By and Through Her Father, Lawrence Levy and Her Mother, Betty Lou Levy (No. 20-255): lean 75%, respondent won Clemente Avelino Pereida v. Robert M. Wilkinson, Acting Attorney General (No. 19-438): lean 78%, respondent won Dismissed, no winner Henry Schein, Inc. v. Archer and White Sales, Inc. (No. 19-963): lean 73%, dismissed 27 of 28
leaned 75% or more to the petitioner, and the petitioner won
0 of 0
leaned toward the respondent, and the respondent won
42 of 52
decided cases where the lean pointed the right way (always picking the petitioner: 42)
About this page. Built from the Court’s own transcript and recording.
The lean. Backtested leave-one-Term-out on 511 decided arguments (OT2017–OT2025): 72% of outcomes called right against 70.5% for “the petitioner always wins”, with forecast error (Brier score) 0.197 against 0.209. It refines a strong base rate more than it flips calls. Each Justice’s lean: 67.5% of 4,408 votes against 63.4% for their usual rate.Words, not questions. Every Justice turn in an advocate’s time counts toward that advocate’s side; amicus time counts for neither. Counting turns adds nothing once words are counted, and the raw rule “more questions loses” does worse than the base rate, because petitioners argue first and have rebuttal.Timing. Each line is timed to the recording: speech recognition matched the Court’s audio to its transcript, and its own text is used for nothing but the clock. Click a line to hear it.Method and findings: docs/argument-transcripts.md . ← October Term 2020 arguments · The docket →