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City of Santa Maria, California, et al. v. Adolfo Cardenas

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 24-5457 · judgment December 17, 2025


32%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 22%–43%
Conference-stage estimate: 11%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
GVR risk 3%

About 7.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a state or local-government petitioner, and a Ninth Circuit decision below.

Question presented

In Heck v. Humphrey, 512 U.S. 477 (1994), this Court held that a Section 1983 damages claim must be dismissed where a judgment in the plaintiff’s favor would necessarily imply the invalidity of his criminal conviction. Here, the district court found application of the Heck bar “rather straightforward.” App. 17a. Respondent pleaded no contest to resisting arrest after leading officers on a high-speed chase, fleeing on foot, and charging at an officer before being tased. But then he sued the City and one of its officers alleging use of the taser to take him into custody was excessive force. Under Heck, that claim cannot proceed. Yet a divided Ninth Circuit panel reversed. The majority first held that the record did not clearly establish the factual basis for respondent’s no-contest plea—even though, as Judge Koh explained in her separate opinion, respondent repeatedly conceded that the entire police report, which included a detailed description of why and how the taser was employed, formed the factual basis for respondent’s plea. In the alternative, the panel invoked the nowvacated decision in King v. Villegas, 156 F.4th 979 (9th Cir. 2025), vacated, 171 F.4th 1163 (9th Cir. 2026), which held that Rule 410(a) of the Federal Rules of Evidence categorically bars a defendant from ever invoking a plaintiff’s no-contest plea as a basis for a Heck dismissal. The question presented is whether a court may refuse to apply the Heck bar in such circumstances.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Gregory George Garre
Latham & Watkins LLP

For respondent
Brian Thomas Dunn
The Cochran Firm

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
1 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A1214

Proceedings

  1. Sep 03 2026
    Response Requested. (Due October 5, 2026)
  2. Sep 02 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  3. Aug 20 2026
    Brief amici curiae of International Municipal Lawyers Association, et al. filed.
  4. Jul 20 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 20, 2026)
  5. May 05 2026
    Application (25A1214) granted by Justice Kagan extending the time to file until July 20, 2026.
  6. May 01 2026
    Application (25A1214) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from May 21, 2026 to July 20, 2026, submitted to Justice Kagan.