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The GEO Group, Inc., a Florida Corporation v. Bob Ferguson, Governor of Washington, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 24-2815 · judgment August 19, 2025


26%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 18%–35%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
At the Oct 16 conference: granted 1.3% · GVR 0.74% · relisted 48% · denied 50%
Granted ever, conference-stage estimate: 21%

About 6.2× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a Ninth Circuit decision below, and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Question presented

Like the pending petition in GEO Group, Inc. v. Nwauzor, No. 25-828 (filed Jan. 9, 2026), this petition involves yet another attempt by Washington State to dictate federal immigration detention policy by targeting private companies providing services to the federal government. Petitioner provides services under contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) at the Northwest ICE Processing Center (“NWIPC”) in Tacoma, Washington. Washington disagrees with the federal government’s immigration policies and tried to shut down operations at the NWIPC altogether by passing a law banning private parties from operating detention centers within the state’s borders. After courts halted a similar California ban as blatantly unlawful, Washington tried another tack: It enacted comprehensive regulations micromanaging nearly every aspect of day-to-day operations at the NWIPC— and that facility alone. The district court preliminarily enjoined that effort, concluding that it violates the Supremacy Clause’s intergovernmentalimmunity doctrine. But the Ninth Circuit vacated, reasoning that Washington’s law can survive because it targets a federal contractor rather than the federal government itself. The question presented is: Whether the Supremacy Clause permits a state to enact a law micromanaging the details of how a federal contractor must provide services at a federal detention facility, while exempting the state’s own detention facilities from all those requirements.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Paul D. Clement
Clement & Murphy, PLLC

For respondent
Noah Guzzo Purcell
Office of the Attorney General

Case

Subject area
Federalism (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 2 conferences

Amicus briefs
1 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A1145

Proceedings

  1. Oct 07 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 11/6/2026.
  2. Oct 06 2026
    Rescheduled.
  3. Sep 30 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 10/16/2026.
  4. Sep 30 2026
    Reply of petitioner The GEO Group, Inc. filed. (Distributed)
  5. Sep 16 2026
    Brief of respondents Robert W. Ferguson, et al. in opposition filed.
  6. Aug 17 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Federation for American Immigration Reform filed.
  7. Jul 31 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted in part, and the time is extended to and including September 16, 2026.
  8. Jul 29 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from August 17, 2026 to October 1, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  9. Jul 10 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 17, 2026)
  10. Jun 02 2026
    Application (25A1145) granted by Justice Kagan extending the time to file until July 10, 2026.
  11. May 28 2026
    Application (25A1145) to extend further the time from June 11, 2026 to July 10, 2026, submitted to Justice Kagan.
  12. Apr 16 2026
    Application (25A1145) granted by Justice Kagan extending the time to file until June 11, 2026.
  13. Apr 13 2026
    Application (25A1145) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from May 12, 2026 to June 11, 2026, submitted to Justice Kagan.