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Shosh Yonay, et al. v. Paramount Pictures Corporation

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 24-2897 · judgment January 2, 2026


9%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 6%–12%
Conference-stage estimate: 6%
Rule 10: circuit split argued
GVR risk 0%

About 2.1× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Ninth Circuit decision below, and a circuit split argued in the petition, and down for a business respondent.

Question presented

To prove copyright infringement, a plaintiff must show that the accused work appropriates original expression from the asserted work. Feist Publ’ns, Inc. v. Rural Tel. Serv. Co., 499 U.S. 340, 361 (1991). In deciding that issue, courts ask whether the two works are “substantially similar.” In the decision below, the Ninth Circuit applied its twostep approach to substantial similarity. At the first step (the “extrinsic” test), the court breaks the copyrighted work into the protected aspects of its components—such as characters, plot, and themes—and compares each to the corresponding component of the allegedly infringing work. App., infra, 7a-8a. Only if the court itself finds those individual elements “substantially similar” under that threshold inquiry can the case proceed to the second step (the “intrinsic” test), where a factfinder assesses the works’ similarity from “ ‘the standpoint of the ordinary reasonable observer.’ ” Id. at 7a. The Fourth and Eighth Circuits employ a similar approach. The Second, Third, Fifth, Seventh, and D.C. Circuits reject that component-by-component dissection. They instead compare the works as a whole, asking (in a single step) whether an “ ‘ordinary observer’ ” would perceive them “as coming from one creative source.” Knitwaves, Inc. v. Lollytogs Ltd., 71 F.3d 996, 1003-1004 (2d Cir. 1995). The question presented is: Whether courts may decide for themselves that a copyrighted work and an allegedly infringing work are not substantially similar—granting judgment for the defendant—without considering how an ordinary observer would perceive the works as a whole.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Jeffrey Alan Lamken
MoloLamken LLP

For respondent
Anton Metlitsky
O'Melveny & Myers LLP

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
3 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A1217

Proceedings

  1. Aug 20 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including October 16, 2026.
  2. Aug 19 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from September 16, 2026 to October 16, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  3. Aug 17 2026
    Response Requested. (Due September 16, 2026)
  4. Aug 13 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Music Artists Coalition, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  5. Aug 10 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Professor Daryl Lim, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  6. Aug 05 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  7. Aug 05 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of National Society of Entertainment & Arts Lawyers filed. (Distributed)
  8. Jul 29 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Paramount Pictures Corporation to respond filed.
  9. Jul 10 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 13, 2026)
  10. May 05 2026
    Application (25A1217) granted by Justice Kagan extending the time to file until July 10, 2026.
  11. May 01 2026
    Application (25A1217) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from May 13, 2026 to July 10, 2026, submitted to Justice Kagan.