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Christopher L. Carroll and Whiskey Dix Big Truck Repair, LLC v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, No. 25-1396 · judgment February 11, 2026


14%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 8%–23%
Conference-stage estimate: 3%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
GVR risk 0%

About 3.4× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel with five or more prior petitions here, a circuit split argued in the petition, and an Eighth Circuit decision below.

Question presented

The Fifth Amendment guarantees that no person shall be held to answer for a capital or otherwise infamous crime unless on a presentment or indictment of a grand jury. That guarantee carries constitutional substance and “cannot mean less today than [it] did the day [it was] adopted.” United States v. Haymond, 588 U.S. 634, 642 (2019). Circa 1791, Justices traveling circuit, contemporary legal scholars, popular legal publications and courts throughout the new republic were all rejecting probable as the appropriate grand jury standard of proof and articulating a much higher standard. These contemporaneous authorities establish that the standard required for a grand jury indictment was substantially higher than probable cause when the Fifth Amendment was adopted. T h is Cou r t ha s never d i rect ly resolved t he constitutionally required standard for the grand jury. Rather than applying the historical record, the Eighth Circuit declared itself bound by dicta in later decisions of this Court and held that a grand jury may indict upon a mere finding of probable cause. That holding contravenes the original public understanding of the Grand Jury Clause and weakens a foundational constitutional protection. Petitioners’ case presents the question as a pure legal issue, properly preserved and clearly presented for this Court’s review. The Question Presented is: 1. Whether the Eighth Circuit erred in holding that the Fifth Amendment permits a grand jury to indict on a finding of probable cause—contravening the original public understanding of the Grand Jury Clause.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
James Garvin Martin
Dowd Bennett, LLP

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Linked docket
25A1053

Proceedings

  1. Aug 19 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  2. Aug 11 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent United States to respond filed.
  3. Jul 09 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 12, 2026)
  4. Mar 24 2026
    Application (25A1053) granted by Justice Kavanaugh extending the time to file until July 11, 2026.
  5. Mar 20 2026
    Application (25A1053) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from May 12, 2026 to July 11, 2026, submitted to Justice Kavanaugh.