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Wilton Rancheria v. UNITE HERE International Union

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 25-234 · judgment April 8, 2026


7%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 5%–10%
Conference-stage estimate: 2%
Rule 10: circuit split argued
GVR risk 0%

About 1.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a Ninth Circuit decision below, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a petition filed soon after the judgment below.

Question presented

Notwithstanding the deference afforded to arbitration awards, arbitrators lack the power to facially invalidate federal and state statutes. Similarly, courts defer to Tribal interpretation of Tribal law, as a critical element of longstanding policies upholding and safeguarding Tribal sovereignty. Does an arbitrator exceed his authority when he facially invalidates a duly-enacted Tribal law, especially when a court would not do so and when he would not be permitted to invalidate a duly-enacted federal or state statute?

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Michael Dominic Meuti
Benesch Friedlander Coplan & Aronoff LLP

For respondent
Kristin L. Martin
McCracken, Stemerman & Holsberry, LLC

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Proceedings

  1. Jul 22 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  2. Jul 10 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent UNITE HERE International Union to respond filed.
  3. Jul 07 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 10, 2026)