Supreme Court Report

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Olympus Spa, et al. v. Andreta Armstrong, Executive Director of the Washington State Human Rights Commission, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 23-4031 · judgment May 29, 2025


10%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 6%–16%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 2.5× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a circuit split argued in the petition, a petition citing more than ten dissents, and a Ninth Circuit decision below, and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Questions presented

Olympus Spa is a Christian, family-run, Korean bathhouse or jjimjilbang. It provides an intimate environment exclusively for women and girls. Its mission is to restore women’s physical and spiritual health through Korean customs that require complete nudity in communal areas and during full-body scrubs administered by female employees. The owners hold the religious conviction that men and women should not be unclothed together unless married to each other. So the Spa admits only female patrons. A male who identifies as a woman sought to use the Spa’s communal area with nude female patrons as young as 13. The owners cited their female-only entrance policy and declined. But the State of Washington said that policy violated its public-accommodation law by excluding based on “gender expression or identity.” A sharply divided Ninth Circuit affirmed dismissal of the Spa’s lawsuit, holding the First Amendment did not protect the jjimjilbang from fines and prosecution, presenting two questions:

  1. Whether applying Washington’s law to force a Christian, all-female jjimjilbang to admit males violates the Free Exercise Clause under Tandon v. Newsom, 593 U.S. 61 (2021) (per curiam), and Catholic Charities Bureau, Inc. v. Wisconsin Labor & Industry Review Commission, 605 U.S. 238 (2025), or associational freedom under Boy Scouts of America v. Dale, 530 U.S. 640 (2000).

  2. Whether a policy that differentiates based on anatomy discriminates “based on gender identity or transgender status.” West Virginia v. B.P.J., 146 S. Ct. 2356, 2378 (2026) (citing United States v. Skrmetti, 605 U.S. 495, 517 (2025)).

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Kevin T. Snider
Pacific Justice Institute

For respondent
Peter Benjamin Gonick
Attorney General of Washington

Case

Subject area
First Amendment (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
—

Amicus briefs
15 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A1111

Proceedings

  1. Oct 05 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Tacoma Korean Christian Church Association, et al. filed.
  2. Oct 05 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Medical Institute for Sexual Health filed.
  3. Oct 05 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of America First Legal Foundation filed.
  4. Oct 05 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Thomas More Society filed.
  5. Oct 05 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Manhattan Institute filed.
  6. Oct 05 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Our Duty–USA, et al. filed.
  7. Oct 05 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Independent Women's Law Center filed.
  8. Oct 05 2026
    Brief amici curiae of The National Legal Foundation, et al. filed.
  9. Oct 05 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Florida, et al. filed.
  10. Sep 30 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Equal Protection Project filed.
  11. Sep 30 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Foundation for Moral Law filed.
  12. Sep 30 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Women and Girls Harmed by Sex Self-ID Policies in Washington State in support of neither party filed.
  13. Sep 16 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including November 4, 2026.
  14. Sep 16 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Women's Declaration International USA filed.
  15. Sep 16 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of NC Values Institute filed.
  16. Sep 15 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from October 5, 2026 to November 4, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  17. Sep 14 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Former Pennsylvania High School Students filed.
  18. Aug 10 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 5, 2026)
  19. Jun 24 2026
    Application (25A1111) to extend further the time from July 10, 2026 to August 9, 2026, submitted to Justice Kagan.
  20. Jun 24 2026
    Application (25A1111) granted by Justice Kagan extending the time to file until August 9, 2026.
  21. Apr 09 2026
    Application (25A1111) granted by Justice Kagan extending the time to file until July 10, 2026.
  22. Apr 03 2026
    Application (25A1111) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from June 10, 2026 to July 10, 2026, submitted to Justice Kagan.