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Christopher Ponzo v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, No. 25-1203, 25-1259, 25-1327 · judgment April 1, 2026


6%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 3%–9%
Rule 10: circuit split argued

Modestly above the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a First Circuit decision below, a circuit split argued in the petition, and counsel who has filed here before.

Question presented

Whether under this Court’s decision in McIntosh v. United States, 601 U.S. 330 (2024), a district court has authority to enter a final order of forfeiture against a defendant where, in violation of Fed. R. Crim. P. 32.2(b)(4)(B):

  1. the first time the government specified the amount it sought to forfeit was at the sentencing hearing;

  2. the order of forfeiture was not orally pronounced “at sentencing”;

  3. the district court granted the government’s post-sentencing motion for forfeiture without allowing the defendant to respond;

  4. the defendant had no opportunity to present evidence or be heard before $13.2 million was ordered forfeited; and

  5. the forfeiture order entered outside of the defendant’s presence?

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Max D. Stern
Todd & Weld LLP

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history

Linked docket
25A1338

Proceedings

  1. Aug 31 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 5, 2026)
  2. Jun 04 2026
    Application (25A1338) granted by Justice Jackson extending the time to file until August 31, 2026.
  3. May 02 2026
    Application (25A1338) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from June 30, 2026 to August 29, 2026, submitted to Justice Jackson.