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Francisco Xavier Ortiz-Colón v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, No. 23-1504 · judgment May 6, 2026


8%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 5%–13%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 1.9× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a First Circuit decision below, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition), and down for a petition filed soon after the judgment below.

Question presented

I. Does the Double Jeopardy Clause prohibit two convictions and two punishments for the same acts when the violation of 18 U.S.C. § 2251(a) charged in one count of an indictment, also serves as the “offense for which a person can be charged” in another count alleging violation of 18 U.S.C. §2422(b)? II. When charged under 18 U.S.C. §2442(b), is the incorporated “offense for which any person can be charged” an element, or merely a means of violating that statute?

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Mauricio Hernandez Arroyo
Law Offices Mauricio Hernandez Arroyo

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history

Linked docket
26A136

Proceedings

  1. Aug 28 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 1, 2026)
  2. Jul 29 2026
    Application (26A136) granted by Justice Jackson extending the time to file until September 3, 2026.
  3. Jul 23 2026
    Application (26A136) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from August 4, 2026 to September 3, 2026, submitted to Justice Jackson.