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Joseph Frederick Johnson v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit, No. 25-5159 · judgment April 29, 2026


Certiorari denied · October 13, 2026
Pre-decision estimate: 20% cert probability (95% interval 12%–32%)

Before the decision, about 4.8× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a petition citing more than ten dissents.

Question presented

18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(1) makes it a crime for any person “who has been [previously] convicted in any court of[] a crime punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year” to “possess … any firearm or ammunition.” Petitioner’s sole predicate felony is a 2015 state conviction for marijuana cultivation—a non-violent offense involving a substance that the federal government has since rescheduled and many States have legalized. The Tenth Circuit nevertheless affirmed his § 922(g)(1) convictions over his Second Amendment challenge because circuit precedent categorically foreclosed any as-applied challenge, regardless of the predicate offense. The question presented, on which there is an acknowledged and entrenched 6-3 circuit split, is: Whether an individual whose sole predicate felony is a non-violent offense may bring an asapplied Second Amendment challenge to § 922(g)(1)’s permanent dispossession of the right to keep and bear arms.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
E. Joshua Rosenkranz
Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Subject area
Criminal Procedure (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
2 cert-stage

Linked docket
26A100

Order
Order list, October 13, 2026 · Certiorari denied

Proceedings

  1. Oct 13 2026
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Oct 01 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Cato Institute filed.(Distributed)
  3. Oct 01 2026
    Brief amici curiae of National Rifle Association of America, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  4. Sep 23 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 10/9/2026.
  5. Sep 18 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent United States to respond filed.
  6. Aug 27 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 1, 2026)
  7. Jul 23 2026
    Application (26A100) granted by Justice Gorsuch extending the time to file until August 27, 2026.
  8. Jul 17 2026
    Application (26A100) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from July 28, 2026 to September 26, 2026, submitted to Justice Gorsuch.