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Joseph Frederick Johnson v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit, No. 25-5159 · judgment April 29, 2026


14%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 9%–21%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 3.4× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition).

Question presented

18 U.S.C. § 922(g)(1) makes it a crime for any person “who has been [previously] convicted in any court of[] a crime punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year” to “possess … any firearm or ammunition.” Petitioner’s sole predicate felony is a 2015 state conviction for marijuana cultivation—a non-violent offense involving a substance that the federal government has since rescheduled and many States have legalized. The Tenth Circuit nevertheless affirmed his § 922(g)(1) convictions over his Second Amendment challenge because circuit precedent categorically foreclosed any as-applied challenge, regardless of the predicate offense. The question presented, on which there is an acknowledged and entrenched 6-3 circuit split, is: Whether an individual whose sole predicate felony is a non-violent offense may bring an asapplied Second Amendment challenge to § 922(g)(1)’s permanent dispossession of the right to keep and bear arms.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
E. Joshua Rosenkranz
Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history

Linked docket
26A100

Proceedings

  1. Aug 27 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due October 1, 2026)
  2. Jul 23 2026
    Application (26A100) granted by Justice Gorsuch extending the time to file until August 27, 2026.
  3. Jul 17 2026
    Application (26A100) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from July 28, 2026 to September 26, 2026, submitted to Justice Gorsuch.