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Mara Nathan, Individually and on Behalf of Her Minor Child, M. N., et al. v. Alamo Heights Independent School District, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 25-50695


15%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 9%–26%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 3.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a Fifth Circuit decision below and a circuit split argued in the petition, and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Questions presented

Nearly fifty years ago, Stone v. Graham, 449 U.S. 39 (1980) (per curiam), held that permanently posting the Ten Commandments in public-school classrooms violates the Establishment Clause. And Mahmoud v. Taylor, 606 U.S. 522 (2025), recently reaffirmed that public schools burden parents’ free-exercise rights when they “substantially interfere with the religious development” of their children or “pose ‘a very real threat of undermining’ the religious beliefs and practices the parent[s] wish[] to instill in the[ir] child[ren].” Id. at 556 (quoting Wisconsin v. Yoder, 406 U.S. 205, 218 (1972)). Notwithstanding these precedents, the en banc Fifth Circuit declared that Stone is no longer good law and upheld a Texas statute mandating the display of a state-selected version of the Ten Commandments in every public-school classroom. The questions presented are:

  1. Whether the Establishment Clause forbids a state from mandating the permanent, conspicuous display of a government-selected version of the Ten Commandments in every publicschool classroom.

  2. Whether permanently displaying the Ten Commandments in every public-school classroom interferes with parents’ Free Exercise Clause right to direct their children’s religious education and burdens children’s religious freedom.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Jonathan K. Youngwood
Simpson Thacher & Bartlett, LLP

For respondent

Case

Conference history

Linked docket
26A15

Proceedings

  1. Aug 17 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 28, 2026)
  2. Jul 07 2026
    Application (26A15) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until August 19, 2026.
  3. Jun 29 2026
    Application (26A15) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from July 20, 2026 to August 19, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.