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Mara Nathan, Individually and on Behalf of Her Minor Child, M. N., et al. v. Alamo Heights Independent School District, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 25-50695


11%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 5%–20%
Rule 10: dissent below

About 2.6× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a Fifth Circuit decision below and a petition citing more than ten dissents, and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Questions presented

Nearly fifty years ago, Stone v. Graham, 449 U.S. 39 (1980) (per curiam), held that permanently posting the Ten Commandments in public-school classrooms violates the Establishment Clause. And Mahmoud v. Taylor, 606 U.S. 522 (2025), recently reaffirmed that public schools burden parents’ free-exercise rights when they “substantially interfere with the religious development” of their children or “pose ‘a very real threat of undermining’ the religious beliefs and practices the parent[s] wish[] to instill in the[ir] child[ren].” Id. at 556 (quoting Wisconsin v. Yoder, 406 U.S. 205, 218 (1972)). Notwithstanding these precedents, the en banc Fifth Circuit declared that Stone is no longer good law and upheld a Texas statute mandating the display of a state-selected version of the Ten Commandments in every public-school classroom. The questions presented are:

  1. Whether the Establishment Clause forbids a state from mandating the permanent, conspicuous display of a government-selected version of the Ten Commandments in every publicschool classroom.

  2. Whether permanently displaying the Ten Commandments in every public-school classroom interferes with parents’ Free Exercise Clause right to direct their children’s religious education and burdens children’s religious freedom.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Jonathan K. Youngwood
Simpson Thacher & Bartlett, LLP

For respondent
William Robert Peterson
Office of the Texas Attorney General

Case

Subject area
First Amendment (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
—

Amicus briefs
1 cert-stage

Linked docket
26A15

Proceedings

  1. Oct 16 2026
    Motion of Alamo Heights Sch. Dis.,, et al. for an extension of time submitted.
  2. Sep 28 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Professor Mark Storslee, et al. filed.
  3. Sep 14 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including October 28, 2026.
  4. Sep 11 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from September 28, 2026 to October 28, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  5. Aug 17 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 28, 2026)
  6. Jul 07 2026
    Application (26A15) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until August 19, 2026.
  7. Jun 29 2026
    Application (26A15) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from July 20, 2026 to August 19, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.