Supreme Court Report

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Markwayne Mullin, Secretary of Homeland Security, et al. v. Refugee and Immigrant Center for Education and Legal Services, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, No. 25-5243 · judgment April 24, 2026


36%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 22%–52%
At the Nov 6 conference: granted 4.3% · GVR 0.17% · relisted 83% · denied 13%
Granted ever, conference-stage estimate: 31%

About 8.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a federal-government petitioner, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a D.C. Circuit decision below, and down for a business respondent.

Questions presented

  1. Whether Presidential Proclamation No. 10,888, 90 Fed. Reg. 8333 (Jan. 29, 2025), and its implementing guidance—which suspended the entry of certain aliens and precluded their access to statutory provisions that would enable their continued presence in the country, including asylum—are lawful.

  2. Whether 8 U.S.C. 1252(f )(1) bars the classwide relief entered by the district court.

  3. Whether the class definition comports with Article III and Rule 23 of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

For respondent
Lee Gelernt
American Civil Liberties Union Foundation

Case

Subject area
Civil Rights (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
4 cert-stage

Proceedings

  1. Oct 07 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 11/6/2026.
  2. Oct 06 2026
    Reply of petitioners Markwayne Mullin, et al. filed.
  3. Sep 23 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Federation for American Immigration Reform filed.
  4. Sep 23 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Iowa, et al. filed.
  5. Sep 23 2026
    Brief of respondents Refugee and Immigrant Center for Education and Legal Services, et al. in opposition filed.
  6. Sep 23 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of America First Legal Foundation filed.
  7. Sep 23 2026
    Brief amici curiae of America's Future, et al. filed.
  8. Aug 24 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 23, 2026)