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Markwayne Mullin, Secretary of Homeland Security, et al. v. Refugee and Immigrant Center for Education and Legal Services, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, No. 25-5243 · judgment April 24, 2026


63%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 50%–75%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 15.3× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a federal-government petitioner, counsel who has won certiorari before, and a D.C. Circuit decision below, and down for a business respondent.

Questions presented

  1. Whether Presidential Proclamation No. 10,888, 90 Fed. Reg. 8333 (Jan. 29, 2025), and its implementing guidance—which suspended the entry of certain aliens and precluded their access to statutory provisions that would enable their continued presence in the country, including asylum—are lawful.

  2. Whether 8 U.S.C. 1252(f )(1) bars the classwide relief entered by the district court.

  3. Whether the class definition comports with Article III and Rule 23 of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

For respondent

Case

Conference history

Proceedings

  1. Aug 24 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 23, 2026)