Supreme Court Report

Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →

Mario Delaine v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, No. 25-5465 · judgment April 2, 2026


8%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 5%–12%
Conference-stage estimate: 2%
Rule 10: circuit split argued
GVR risk 0%

About 1.9× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a Sixth Circuit decision below.

Question presented

Under the elements clause of the Armed Career Criminal Act (ACCA), 18 U.S.C. § 924(e)(2)(B)(i), a crime is a “violent felony” if it “has as an element the use, attempted use, or threatened use of physical force against the person of another.” In Borden v. United States, 593 U.S. 420 (2021), this Court held that the elements clause excludes crimes that can be committed with a mens rea of recklessness. Id. at 423 (plurality opinion); see id. at 446 (Thomas, J., concurring in the judgment). Since Borden, however, courts of appeals have split on whether the ACCA’s mens rea requirement is satisfied by crimes that merely require a knowing or intentional act, without any requirement of knowledge or intent regarding injury to “the person of another.” The Ninth and Tenth Circuits hold that an offense does not meet the elements clause unless it requires a defendant to cause physical pain or injury to another person with a mens rea more culpable than recklessness. The Seventh and Eleventh Circuits, by contrast, hold that the elements clause is satisfied by any act committed with a mens rea more culpable than recklessness—regardless of whether the defendant intended to cause physical pain or injury to another person or knew that such harm would result. The Sixth Circuit adopted the same position in the decision below. The question presented is: Whether an offense that requires an intentional act, but no mens rea as to the resulting physical pain or injury, qualifies as a “violent felony” under ACCA’s elements clause.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Lisa S. Blatt
Williams & Connolly LLP

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Proceedings

  1. Sep 02 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  2. Aug 31 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent United States to respond filed.
  3. Aug 20 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 23, 2026)