Supreme Court Report

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Juan Matthews v. Louisiana

Paid petition · Court of Appeal of Louisiana, Fourth Circuit, No. 2025-K-0262 · judgment August 27, 2025


4%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
Rule 10: dissent below

Roughly the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition), and a Fourth Circuit decision below, and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Question presented

Under Brady v. Maryland, 373 U.S. 83 (1963), prosecutors must disclose favorable evidence to the defense to safeguard the defendant’s right to a fair trial. The State violates Brady when it suppresses evidence that is “material” to guilt or punishment. Kyles v. Whitley, 514 U.S. 419, 433 (1995). This Court has stressed that the materiality inquiry “is not a sufficiency of evidence test.” Id. at 434 (emphasis added). That is because “the possibility of an acquittal” does not necessarily turn on whether there is “an insufficient evidentiary basis to convict.” Id. at 435. A court thus errs if it rejects a Brady claim because it thinks “the remaining evidence” could “support the jury’s conclusions.” Strickler v. Greene, 527 U.S. 263, 290 (1999). A court must instead consider how the suppressed evidence would have affected the case, and ask whether the “suppression ‘undermines confidence’ ” in the verdict. Kyles, 514 U.S. at 434 (citation omitted). Louisiana state courts nevertheless routinely apply a sufficiency-of-the-evidence test to Brady claims. See, e.g., State ex rel. Robinson v. Vannoy, 397 So. 3d 333, 358 (La. 2024) (asking whether “there was sufficient other evidence upon which defendant’s conviction was based”); State v. Brown, 347 So. 3d 745, 836-838 (La. 2022) (rejecting Brady claim by emphasizing the “overwhelming” and “copious” evidence presented at trial). The question presented is: Whether the Louisiana courts erred by denying Petitioner Juan Matthews’s Brady claim based on the sufficiency of the evidence at trial.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Jo-Ann Tamila Sagar
Hogan Lovells Cadwalader US LLP

For respondent

Case

Conference history

Amicus briefs
4 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A1372

Proceedings

  1. Aug 31 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Cato Institute filed.
  2. Aug 31 2026
    Amicus brief of Fifteen Louisiana Brady Exonerees: Reginald Adams, Jarvis Ballard, Gregory Bright, Glenn Davis, Jr., Jerry Davis, Larry Delmore, Raymond Flanks, John Floyd, Anthony Johnson, Wilbert Jones, Jerome Morgan, Larry Moses, Earl Truvia, Sullivan Walter, and Michael Williams submitted.
  3. Aug 25 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Innocence Network filed.
  4. Aug 25 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Orleans Public Defenders filed.
  5. Aug 17 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 18, 2026)
  6. Jul 07 2026
    Application (25A1372) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until August 15, 2026.
  7. Jun 29 2026
    Application (25A1372) to extend further the time from July 16, 2026 to August 15, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.
  8. Jun 10 2026
    Application (25A1372) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until July 16, 2026.
  9. Jun 04 2026
    Application (25A1372) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from June 16, 2026 to July 16, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.