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University of South Florida College Republicans, et al., Appellants v. Howard W. Lutnick, Secretary of Commerce, et al.

Paid petition · United States District Court for the Middle District of Florida, No. 8:25-cv-02486-WFJ-SDM-RSR · judgment July 7, 2026


54%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 33%–74%
Rule 10: dissent below

About 13× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a direct appeal from a three-judge district court (mandatory jurisdiction), a petition filed soon after the judgment below, and a petition citing three to ten dissents.

Questions presented

The Constitution requires an “actual Enumeration” of the population every ten years. Congress has found that an accurate census “is one of the most critical constitutional functions our Federal Government performs,” and that using statistical methods risks “an inaccurate, invalid, and unconstitutional census.” So it gave any resident whose representation could be changed by such a method—and any Representative—a cause of action, heard by a threejudge district court and appealed to this Court. Pub. L. No. 105-119, § 209, 111 Stat. 2440, 2480–83 (1997). The risk Congress identified came to pass in 2020. Curtailing its enumeration operations, the Census Bureau replaced counting with whole-person imputation, adding at least 3.4% of the population by statistical inference. It later reported significant miscounts in 14 States; the 2010 census had none. This caused Florida to miss an additional House seat. Plaintiffs, including Florida voters and a Member of Congress, sued under § 209. The three-judge district court dismissed. The questions presented are:

  1. Whether Florida residents and a Member of Congress who allege that the Census Bureau’s use of statistical methods cost their State a seat in the House of Representatives have Article III standing to challenge those methods.

  2. Whether 28 U.S.C. § 1658(a)’s four-year limitations period displaces 28 U.S.C. § 2401(a)’s six-year period covering “every civil action commenced against the United States” for § 209 claims.

Counsel of record

For appellant
Christopher E. Mills
Spero Law LLC

For appellee
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Subject area
Judicial Power (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
—

Amicus briefs
3 cert-stage

Proceedings

  1. Oct 14 2026
    Motion of Alliance for Retired Americans, Manuel Guerrero, and Cameron Driggers to affirm submitted.
  2. Oct 14 2026
    Motion of Federal Respondents to affirm submitted.
  3. Sep 17 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Citizens United, et al. filed.
  4. Sep 17 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Center for Election Confidence filed.
  5. Sep 17 2026
    Amicus brief of Florida, et al. not accepted for filing. (To be corrected - September 25, 2026)
  6. Sep 17 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Florida, et al. filed. (Corrected)
  7. Aug 24 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted in part and the time is extended to and including October 14, 2026, for all respondents.
  8. Aug 21 2026
    Motion of Alliance for Retired Americans, et al. to extend the time to file a response from September 17, 2026 to October 19, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  9. Aug 21 2026
    Response to motion to extend the time to file a response from appellants filed.
  10. Aug 21 2026
    Reply in support of motion to extend the time to file a response from Alliance for Retired Americans, et al. filed.
  11. Aug 06 2026
    Statement as to jurisdiction filed. (Response due September 17, 2026)