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Defense Distributed, et al. v. Jennifer Davenport, Attorney General of New Jersey

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, No. 23-3058 · judgment February 12, 2026


11%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 7%–18%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
Conference-stage estimate: 4%

About 2.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a Third Circuit decision below, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a petition citing three to ten dissents, and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Questions presented

The Third and Fifth Circuits are split over venue in this very action. After the case was transferred from Texas to New Jersey, the Fifth Circuit held the transfer unlawful, vacated it, and directed a return request. Yet the District of New Jersey refused the resulting return request, and the Third Circuit affirmed retention on the opposite view of venue. On the merits, the Third Circuit created an acknowledged circuit split over when the First Amendment covers computer code. The questions presented are:

  1. Whether a transferee court may retain a case after the transferor circuit holds the transfer unlawful, vacates it, and directs a formal return request.

  2. Whether the First Amendment covers communicative computer code without more, or only upon additional indicia of expressiveness.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Charles Randall Flores
Flores Law PLLC

For respondent
Tim Sheehan
Office of the New Jersey Attorney General

Case

Subject area
First Amendment (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Linked docket
25A1468

Proceedings

  1. Oct 15 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including November 25, 2026.
  2. Oct 14 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from October 26, 2026 to November 25, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  3. Sep 24 2026
    Response Requested. (Due October 26, 2026)
  4. Sep 23 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 10/9/2026.
  5. Sep 18 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Jennifer Davenport, Attorney General of New Jersey to respond filed.
  6. Aug 10 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 11, 2026)
  7. Jul 07 2026
    Application (25A1468) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until August 8, 2026.
  8. Jun 26 2026
    Application (25A1468) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from July 9, 2026 to August 10, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.