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United Mexican States v. Lion Mexico Consolidated L.P.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, No. 24-7185, 24-7186 · judgment April 7, 2026


6%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 4%–10%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

Modestly above the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a D.C. Circuit decision below, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition), and down for a business respondent.

Question presented

The Federal Arbitration Act (“FAA”) authorizes courts to vacate an arbitration award when an arbitrator has “exceeded [its] powers.” 9 U.S.C. § 10(a)(4). Under this Court’s decisions, an arbitrator “may not ignore the plain language of the contract.” United Paperworkers Int’l Union v. Misco, Inc., 484 U.S. 29, 38 (1987). But if the arbitrator even arguably construes or applies the parties’ agreement, courts must let the award stand. See id. The courts of appeals have developed notably different methods for determining when arbitrators are arguably interpreting an agreement versus ignoring the plain text. Some courts examine the language of the contract and will vacate an award when there is no plausible connection between the text and the arbitrator’s conclusions. Others ask only whether the arbitrator purported to interpret the agreement, in other words, whether the arbitrator looked to and construed the agreement. The court below adopted the latter approach, and in doing so, materially prejudiced the right to relief of the United Mexican States under the FAA. The text of the agreement – in this case, a treaty – was plain and unambiguous and there is no plausible connection between the text and the arbitrators’ conclusions. The question presented is: Whether arbitrators have “exceeded their powers” under 9 U.S.C. § 10(a) when the award has no plausible basis in the governing instrument.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Stephan E. Becker
Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP

For respondent
John Matthew Conlon
Mayer Brown LLP

Case

Conference history

Linked docket
25A1441

Proceedings

  1. Aug 26 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including November 9, 2026.
  2. Aug 25 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from September 8, 2026 to November 9, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  3. Aug 05 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 8, 2026)
  4. Jun 26 2026
    Application (25A1441) granted by The Chief Justice extending the time to file until August 5, 2026.
  5. Jun 23 2026
    Application (25A1441) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from July 6, 2026 to August 5, 2026, submitted to The Chief Justice.