Supreme Court Report

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Michael Shane Ragland v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit, No. 23-12278 · judgment March 5, 2026


16%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 11%–23%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 4× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition).

Question presented

Before a federal prisoner can seek relief in a second or successive habeas application in the district court, they must move in “the appropriate court of appeals,” 28 U.S.C. § 2255(h), for “an order authorizing the district court to consider [their] application,” id. § 2244(b)(3)(A). The court of appeals grants that authorization if the petitioner makes “a prima facie showing” that their “application” “contain[s]” either newly discovered evidence or a new rule of constitutional law made retroactive to cases on collateral review by this Court. Id. §§ 2244(b)(3)(C), 2255(h). Once the court of appeals certifies that these gatekeeping requirements are met, the statute permits the district court to consider the habeas petitioner’s “application.” Id. § 2244(b)(3)(C). The question presented is: Whether a district court’s jurisdiction over a second or successive habeas application by a federal prisoner is limited to the specific “claim” certified by the court of appeals, as the Eleventh and Fifth Circuits hold, or whether it embraces the entire “application,” as the statute’s text provides and as five circuits—the First, Second, Fourth, Seventh, and Ninth—hold.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Samir Ibrahim Deger-Sen
Latham & Watkins LLP

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history

Linked docket
25A1272

Proceedings

  1. Sep 01 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including October 5, 2026.
  2. Aug 31 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from September 4, 2026 to October 5, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  3. Aug 03 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 4, 2026)
  4. Jun 22 2026
    Application (25A1272) granted by Justice Thomas extending the time to file until August 3, 2026.
  5. Jun 17 2026
    Application (25A1272) to extend further the time from July 6, 2026 to August 2, 2026, submitted to Justice Thomas.
  6. May 18 2026
    Application (25A1272) granted by Justice Thomas extending the time to file until July 6, 2026.
  7. May 14 2026
    Application (25A1272) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from June 3, 2026 to August 2, 2026, submitted to Justice Thomas.