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Springfield R-12 School District, et al. v. Brooke Henderson, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, No. 23-1374, 23-1880 · judgment December 30, 2025


28%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 17%–41%
Conference-stage estimate: 3%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
GVR risk 0%

About 6.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a state or local-government petitioner, and a circuit split argued in the petition.

Question presented

This Court has held that a threatened injury must be “certainly impending” to satisfy Article III’s injury-infact requirement, expressly rejecting a more forgiving “objectively reasonable likelihood” standard. Clapper v. Amnesty Int’l USA, 568 U.S. 398, 401, 410 (2013). The courts of appeals are divided over whether the demanding “certainly impending” standard, or the more forgiving objective-reasonableness standard Clapper rejected, governs First Amendment claims of “chilled” or “compelled” speech. The question presented is: Whether a plaintiff alleging chilled or compelled speech establishes Article III injury-in-fact by showing that her self-censorship or compliance was “objectively reasonable,” or whether, consistent with Clapper, the plaintiff must show that a threatened governmental consequence was “certainly impending.”

Counsel of record

For petitioner
John Patrick Elwood
Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP

For respondent
James Vincent Francis Dickey
Southeastern Legal Foundation

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
2 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A1271

Proceedings

  1. Sep 02 2026
    Amicus brief of Commonwealth of Virginia submitted.
  2. Aug 17 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Public School Organizations filed. (Distributed)
  3. Aug 12 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  4. Aug 10 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Brooke Henderson, et al. to respond filed.
  5. Jul 30 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 2, 2026)
  6. May 19 2026
    Application (25A1271) granted by Justice Kavanaugh extending the time to file until July 30, 2026.
  7. May 14 2026
    Application (25A1271) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from May 31, 2026 to July 30, 2026, submitted to Justice Kavanaugh.