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Okechukwu Dimkpa v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, No. 23-6245 · judgment March 3, 2026


7%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 5%–11%
Conference-stage estimate: 1%
Rule 10: circuit split argued
GVR risk 0%

About 1.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a Fourth Circuit decision below.

Questions presented

  1. Whether this Court’s decision in Ruan v. United States, 597 U.S. 450 (2022) constitutes a sufficiently “novel” intervening change in law to constitute “cause” excusing a procedural default under 28 U.S.C. § 2255.

  2. Whether this Court’s holding in Reed v. Ross, 468 U.S. 1 (1984)—that a decision overturning a unanimous or nearly unanimous circuit interpretation of a federal criminal statute, where that interpretation was based on, if not compelled by, this Court’s own precedent, constitutes “cause” excusing procedural default— survived this Court’s later decision in Bousley v. United States, 523 U.S. 614 (1998).

  3. If Reed remains good law, whether this Court’s decision in more “arguably” overturned a practice previously approved of in United States v. Moore, 423 U.S. 122 (1975).

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Beau B. Brindley
The Law Offices of Beau B. Brindley

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Proceedings

  1. Aug 19 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  2. Aug 11 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent United States to respond filed.
  3. Jul 30 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due September 2, 2026)