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Jose Manuel Mendoza v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 25-3558 · judgment April 24, 2026


7%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 5%–10%
Conference-stage estimate: 2%
Rule 10: circuit split argued
GVR risk 0%

About 1.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a Ninth Circuit decision below, a circuit split argued in the petition, and counsel who has filed here before.

Questions presented

  1. W hether a defendant seeking to vacate a conviction on Sixth Amendment grounds must produce contemporaneous plea-stage evidence to establish prejudice under Padilla v. Kentucky and Lee v. United States, or whether prejudice must be evaluated from the totality of the circumstances, including the defendant’s ties to the United States and the centrality of avoiding permanent exile.

  2. Whether, after Padilla rejected the directcollateral distinction as “ill-suited” to immigration consequences, a court may sustain a guilty plea entered without any specific advisement that the plea would trigger a mandatory, automatic, and permanent bar to lawful status and reentry.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
LeRoy George Siddell

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Proceedings

  1. Aug 12 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  2. Aug 07 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent United States to respond filed.
  3. Jul 23 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 27, 2026)