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Association for Education Fairness v. Montgomery County Board of Education, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, No. 23-1068 · judgment February 3, 2026


4%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
Conference-stage estimate: 2%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
GVR risk 0%

Roughly the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a circuit split argued in the petition, a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition), and counsel who has filed here before, and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Question presented

Whether a plaintiff alleging that a school district implemented facially-neutral admissions criteria for a racially discriminatory purpose must show that the criteria produced a disparate impact on the targeted racial group before a court may consider evidence of discriminatory intent.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Christopher Matthew Kieser
Pacific Legal Foundation

For respondent
Jo-Ann Tamila Sagar
Hogan Lovells Cadwalader US LLP

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
5 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A1086

Proceedings

  1. Aug 27 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Students Who Oppose Racial Discrimination, et al. filed.
  2. Aug 27 2026
    Brief of respondents Montgomery County Board of Education, et al. in opposition filed.
  3. Aug 26 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Students for Fair Admissions filed.
  4. Aug 26 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Asian American Coalition for Education, et al. filed.
  5. Aug 21 2026
    Brief amici curiae of American Civil Rights Project, et al. filed.
  6. Aug 19 2026
    Brief amici curiae of The Buckeye Institute, et al. filed.
  7. Jul 28 2026
    Response Requested. (Due August 27, 2026)
  8. Jul 22 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  9. Jul 17 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Montgomery County Board of Education, et al. to respond filed.
  10. Jun 29 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 3, 2026)
  11. Apr 08 2026
    Application (25A1086) granted by The Chief Justice extending the time to file until July 3, 2026.
  12. Apr 01 2026
    Application (25A1086) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from May 4, 2026 to July 3, 2026, submitted to The Chief Justice.