Supreme Court Report

Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →

All Petroleum-Product Cargo Onboard the M/T Arina with International Maritime Organization Number 9189952, et al. v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, No. 24-5218 · judgment April 21, 2026


12%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 8%–17%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued

About 2.9× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for a D.C. Circuit decision below, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition).

Question presented

In his dissent from the denial of certiorari in Baston v. United States, 580 U.S. 1182, 1186 (2017) (Thomas, J. dissenting from the denial of certiorari), Justice Thomas observed that “the courts of appeals have taken this Court’s modern interstate commerce doctrine and assumed that the foreign commerce power is at least as broad. The result is a doctrine justified neither by our precedents nor by the original understanding.” This language aptly describes the D.C. Circuit’s decision here, in which the lower court essentially adopted this Court’s “affects test” from United States v. Lopez, 514 U.S. 549, 559 (1995) as the governing standard under the Foreign Commerce Clause. The question presented is precisely the one for which Justice Thomas urged a grant of certiorari in Baston, and one that has divided the courts of appeals: namely, whether the Foreign Commerce Clause—and, by extension, the jurisdictional provision in the criminal material-support statute (18 U.S.C. § 2339B(d)(1)(E)) on which it relies—requires a “nexus to the United States” in the form of foreign commercial act “with” the United States rather than simply an act occurring entirely abroad among foreign actors, if that commerce “affects” the United States.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Timothy Patrick O'Toole
Miller & Chevalier Chartered

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history

Proceedings

  1. Aug 24 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including September 23, 2026.
  2. Aug 20 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from August 24, 2026 to September 23, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  3. Jul 17 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due August 24, 2026)