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Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation v. Robert F. Kennedy, Secretary of Health and Human Services, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, No. 24-2968 · judgment September 11, 2025


Certiorari denied · May 18, 2026
Pre-decision estimate: 7% cert probability (95% interval 4%–11%)

Before the decision, about 1.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Third Circuit decision below, and a business petitioner.

Questions presented

The Drug Price Negotiation Program (Program) threatens enterprise-destroying fines unless a drug manufacturer both provides its products at government-dictated prices and publicly declares that those coerced prices are “fair.” The fines at the root of the law are unprecedented in scope—for petitioner Novartis, they would swiftly escalate to $93.1 billion annually. The Third Circuit declined even to address whether this extraordinary penalty was excessive under the Eighth Amendment, because it found that the Anti-Injunction Act (AIA) divests federal court jurisdiction over any challenge to a civil penalty unconnected to criminal conduct so long as Congress labels it a tax. The court then concluded that the coerced transfers did not reflect an unconstitutional taking because they were “voluntary,” and that the compelled speech at issue did not implicate the First Amendment because it was merely “incidental” to the regulation of conduct. Each holding involves constitutional questions of first-order importance. The questions presented are:

  1. Whether the AIA bars review of any challenge under the Excessive Fines Clause of a civil penalty unconnected to criminal conduct whenever Congress labels it a tax, even when it is effectively unpayable.

  2. Whether the Program violates the Fifth Amendment by forcing manufacturers to transfer drugs to third parties at government-dictated prices.

  3. Whether the Program violates the First Amendment by coercing manufacturers into expressing the government’s preferred viewpoints on matters of public concern with which the manufacturers disagree.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Gregory George Garre
Latham & Watkins LLP

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
1 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A587

Proceedings

  1. May 18 2026
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Apr 22 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 5/14/2026.
  3. Apr 21 2026
    Reply of petitioner Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation filed. (Distributed)
  4. Apr 03 2026
    Brief of respondents Robert F. Kennedy, Secretary of Health and Human Services, et al. in opposition filed.
  5. Mar 04 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Chamber of Commerce of the United States of America filed.
  6. Mar 02 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including April 3, 2026.
  7. Feb 27 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from March 4, 2026 to April 3, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  8. Jan 23 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due March 4, 2026)
  9. Dec 11 2025
    Application (25A587) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until January 23, 2026.
  10. Dec 08 2025
    Application (25A587) to extend further the time from January 9, 2026 to January 23, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.
  11. Nov 20 2025
    Application (25A587) granted by Justice Alito extending the time to file until January 9, 2026.
  12. Nov 14 2025
    Application (25A587) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from December 10, 2025 to February 8, 2026, submitted to Justice Alito.