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National Rifle Association of America v. Maria T. Vullo

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, No. 21-636 · judgment July 17, 2025


Certiorari denied · February 23, 2026
Pre-decision estimate: 7% cert probability (95% interval 4%–10%)

Before the decision, about 1.6× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Second Circuit decision below, and a petition filed soon after the judgment below.

Question presented

Respondent Maria T. Vullo is a former New York official who used her regulatory power to coerce third parties into taking action against Petitioner, the National Rifle Association of America, to punish and suppress its protected First Amendment speech. Last year, in NRA v. Vullo, 602 U.S. 175 (2024), this Court unanimously held that these allegations stated a claim against Vullo for violating the NRA’s First Amendment rights. In doing so, the Court emphasized that it “d[id] not break new ground” but instead only “reaffirm[ed]” its decades-old precedent in Bantam Books, Inc. v. Sullivan, 372 U.S. 58 (1963), which “stands for the principle that a government official cannot do indirectly what she is barred from doing directly: A government official cannot coerce a private party to punish or suppress disfavored speech on her behalf.” Vullo, 602 U.S. at 190. As the Court explained, Bantam Books squarely held that “a government entity’s ‘threat of invoking legal sanctions and other means of coercion’ against a third party ‘to achieve the suppression’ of disfavored speech violates the First Amendment.” Id. at 180. On remand, however, the Second Circuit ruled for Vullo on qualified immunity, because “a reasonable officer in Vullo’s position likely would have thought that her conduct . . . was permissible.” Pet.App.32a. The questions presented are: 1. When Vullo implemented her scheme against the NRA, was it clearly established that the First Amendment did not allow a government official to coerce a disfavored speaker’s service providers to punish or suppress disfavored speech on her behalf?

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Noel John Francisco
Jones Day

For respondent
Neal Kumar Katyal
Milbank LLP

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 2 conferences

Amicus briefs
12 cert-stage

Proceedings

  1. Feb 23 2026
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Feb 13 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 2/20/2026.
  3. Jan 21 2026
    Rescheduled.
  4. Jan 07 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 1/23/2026.
  5. Jan 07 2026
    Reply of petitioner National Rifle Association of America filed. (Distributed)
  6. Dec 19 2025
    Brief of respondent Maria T. Vullo in opposition filed.
  7. Nov 19 2025
    Brief amici curiae of Advancing American Freedom, et al. filed.
  8. Nov 19 2025
    Brief amicus curiae of The Buckeye Institute filed.
  9. Nov 19 2025
    Brief amicus curiae of New Civil Liberties Alliance filed.
  10. Nov 19 2025
    Brief amicus curiae of Alliance Defending Freedom filed.
  11. Nov 19 2025
    Brief amicus curiae of American Center for Law & Justice filed.
  12. Nov 19 2025
    Brief amicus curiae of Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression filed.
  13. Nov 19 2025
    Brief amicus curiae of Institute for Justice filed.
  14. Nov 19 2025
    Brief amicus curiae of Cato Institute filed.
  15. Nov 19 2025
    Brief amici curiae of Gun Owners of America, et al. filed.
  16. Nov 19 2025
    Brief amici curiae of Business and Financial Law Scholars, et al. filed.
  17. Nov 18 2025
    Brief amicus curiae of Consumers’ Research filed.
  18. Nov 18 2025
    Brief amicus curiae of Americans for Prosperity Foundation filed.
  19. Oct 31 2025
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including December 19, 2025.
  20. Oct 29 2025
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from November 19, 2025 to December 19, 2025, submitted to The Clerk.
  21. Oct 15 2025
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due November 19, 2025)