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Hernan Lopez v. United States, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, No. 23-7183, 23-7186 · judgment July 2, 2025


GVR'd · January 12, 2026
Pre-decision estimate: 7% cert probability (95% interval 5%–10%)

Before the decision, about 1.7× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Second Circuit decision below, and a petition filed soon after the judgment below.

Questions presented

The so-called honest-services statute, 18 U.S.C. §1346, is a notoriously vague statute that has required this Court’s repeated intervention to rein in ambitious prosecutors. At least four Justices have concluded that the statute is unconstitutionally vague. A majority has worked creatively to preserve a narrow constitutional core of prosecutions, but the Second Circuit has not gotten the message. In Percoco v. United States, 598 U.S. 319 (2023), the Court reversed the Second Circuit and emphasized that the core was indeed narrow and requires more than just a “smattering” of decisions predating McNally v. United States, 483 U.S. 350 (1987). The district court here took the lesson of Percoco to heart and dismissed this novel and misguided effort to use §1346 to reach foreign commercial bribery—conduct that no federal criminal statute that is actually focused on bribery at home or abroad reaches. The Second Circuit, by contrast, reversed and made clear that it would continue to apply its pre-Percoco case law unless and until instructed otherwise (again) by this Court. This Court should provide the necessary instruction either by making clear that §1346 does not reach foreign commercial bribery or by abandoning the judicial effort to try to save §1346 from vagueness altogether. The questions presented are:

  1. Whether the honest-services statute criminalizes foreign commercial bribery.

  2. Whether the honest-services statute is unconstitutionally vague.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Paul D. Clement
Clement & Murphy, PLLC

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
3 cert-stage

Related
Vide, 25-390

Proceedings

  1. Feb 13 2026
    Judgment Issued.
  2. Jan 12 2026
    Petition GRANTED. Judgment VACATED and case REMANDED for further consideration in light of the pending motion to dismiss the indictment.
  3. Dec 23 2025
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 1/9/2026.
  4. Dec 16 2025
    Reply of petitioner Hernan Lopez filed.
  5. Dec 15 2025
    Waiver of the 14-day waiting period for the distribution of the petition pursuant to Rule 15.5 filed by petitioner.
  6. Dec 09 2025
    Brief of respondent United States filed. VIDED.
  7. Nov 26 2025
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is further extended to and including December 9, 2025.
  8. Nov 25 2025
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from December 3, 2025 to December 9, 2025, submitted to The Clerk.
  9. Nov 03 2025
    Brief amicus curiae of National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers filed. VIDED.
  10. Nov 03 2025
    Brief amicus curiae of Pacific Legal Foundation filed. VIDED. (Distributed)
  11. Oct 31 2025
    Brief amici curiae of Due Process Institute, et al. filed. VIDED.
  12. Oct 29 2025
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including December 3, 2025.
  13. Oct 27 2025
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from November 3, 2025 to December 3, 2025, submitted to The Clerk.
  14. Sep 30 2025
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due November 3, 2025)