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Zillow Group, Inc., et al. v. Jeremy Jaeger, Individually and on Behalf of All Others Similarly Situated

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 24-6605 · judgment September 26, 2025


6%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 5%–9%
Conference-stage estimate: 20%
GVR risk 0%

About 1.6× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Ninth Circuit decision below, and a business petitioner.

Question presented

In Basic Inc. v. Levinson, 485 U.S. 224, 246-47 (1988), the Court held that securities fraud plaintiffs can obtain class certification by proving prerequisites tending to show that the defendant’s alleged misrepresentations affected the “market price” of the defendant’s stock. The defendant may then rebut that showing with evidence that its statements did not in fact affect the stock price. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, 594 U.S. 113, 123 (2021). Most plaintiffs claim that the defendant’s alleged “front-end” misstatements affected stock price by concealing a material business risk, thus preventing the stock price from declining. Plaintiffs here point to a stock price decline that occurred after the “backend” disclosure of bad news, and argue that the decline would have happened earlier if the defendant’s front-end statements had been truthful. In Goldman, the Court held defendants must have a meaningful opportunity to rebut this “inflation maintenance” theory of price impact by showing that the back-end disclosures didn’t “actually correct[]” the defendant’s front-end statements. Id. But the Ninth Circuit here held that investors may invoke the theory if the front- and back-end statements address the same general subject matter, even absent correction. The question presented is whether a defendant can rebut the inflation maintenance theory by showing that back-end disclosures didn’t actually correct its alleged misstatements, as the Second Circuit has held, or whether the inflation maintenance theory is functionally immune from challenge if the disclosures are about the same general subject as the prior statements, as the Third and Ninth Circuits have held.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Shay Dvoretzky
Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP

For respondent
Steve W. Berman
Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro LLP

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 2 conferences

Amicus briefs
3 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A1073

Proceedings

  1. Aug 26 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  2. Aug 26 2026
    Reply of petitioners Zillow Group, Inc., et al. filed. (Distributed)
  3. Aug 11 2026
    Brief of respondent Jeremy Jaeger, Individually and on Behalf of All Others Similarly Situated in opposition filed.
  4. Jul 27 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Former SEC Officials, et al. filed.
  5. Jul 27 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Chamber of Commerce of the United States of America, et al. filed.
  6. Jul 27 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Manhattan Institute filed.
  7. Jul 17 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including August 11, 2026.
  8. Jul 16 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from July 27, 2026 to August 11, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  9. Jun 25 2026
    Response Requested. (Due July 27, 2026)
  10. Jun 17 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  11. Jun 09 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Jeremy Jaeger, Individually and on Behalf of All Others Similarly Situated to respond filed.
  12. Jun 05 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due July 9, 2026)
  13. Mar 31 2026
    Application (25A1073) granted by Justice Kagan extending the time to file until June 5, 2026.
  14. Mar 27 2026
    Application (25A1073) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from April 6, 2026 to June 5, 2026, submitted to Justice Kagan.