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Cade Brumley, Superintendent, Louisiana State Education, et al. v. Darcy Roake, Reverend, Individually and on Behalf of Their Minor Children, Real Parties in Interest A. V. and S. V., et al.
Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 24-30706 · judgment February 20, 2026
6%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 4%–8%
Conference-stage estimate: 3%
GVR risk 1%
Modestly above the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Fifth Circuit decision below, and a petition filed soon after the judgment below.
Questions presented
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Whether respondents’ challenge to H.B. 71 is non-justiciable.
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Whether H.B. 71 is facially unconstitutional under either the Establishment Clause or the Free Exercise Clause of the First Amendment.
Counsel of record
For petitioner
Jorge Benjamin Aguinaga
Louisiana Department of Justice
For respondent
Jonathan K. Youngwood
Simpson Thacher & Bartlett, LLP
Case
Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference
Proceedings
- Aug 10 2026Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including September 28, 2026.
- Aug 07 2026Motion to extend the time to file a response from August 27, 2026 to September 28, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
- Jul 28 2026Response Requested. (Due August 27, 2026)
- Jul 08 2026DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
- Jul 06 2026Waiver of right of respondent Darcy Roake, et al. to respond filed.
- May 21 2026Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due July 8, 2026)