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Cade Brumley, Superintendent, Louisiana State Education, et al. v. Darcy Roake, Reverend, Individually and on Behalf of Their Minor Children, Real Parties in Interest A. V. and S. V., et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, No. 24-30706 · judgment February 20, 2026


33%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
95% interval 23%–44%
Rule 10: dissent below, circuit split argued
Conference-stage estimate: 4%

About 7.9× the 4.1% base rate. The model weights this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Fifth Circuit decision below, and a circuit split argued in the petition.

Questions presented

  1. Whether respondents’ challenge to H.B. 71 is non-justiciable.

  2. Whether H.B. 71 is facially unconstitutional under either the Establishment Clause or the Free Exercise Clause of the First Amendment.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Jorge Benjamin Aguinaga
Louisiana Department of Justice

For respondent
Jonathan K. Youngwood
Simpson Thacher & Bartlett, LLP

Case

Subject area
First Amendment (estimated from the questions presented, in the Supreme Court Database’s categories)

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Proceedings

  1. Sep 18 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is further extended to and including October 19, 2026.
  2. Sep 17 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from September 28, 2026 to October 19, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  3. Aug 10 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including September 28, 2026.
  4. Aug 07 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from August 27, 2026 to September 28, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  5. Jul 28 2026
    Response Requested. (Due August 27, 2026)
  6. Jul 08 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/28/2026.
  7. Jul 06 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Darcy Roake, et al. to respond filed.
  8. May 21 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due July 8, 2026)