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Russian Federation v. Stabil LLC, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, No. 25-7005, 25-7064 · judgment February 13, 2026


Certiorari denied · June 29, 2026
Pre-decision estimate: 8% cert probability (95% interval 5%–14%)

Before the decision, about 2× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for a petition filed soon after the judgment below, a D.C. Circuit decision below, and counsel who has filed here before, and down for a business respondent.

Question presented

This petition presents the same question pending before this Court in Kingdom of Spain v. Blasket Renewable Investments, LLC, et al. (No. 24-1130) on the proper interpretation and application of the arbitration exception of the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA), which provides that a foreign state shall not be immune in an action to confirm an award rendered pursuant to “an agreement made by the foreign state with or for the benefit of a private party to submit to arbitration all or any differences * * * between the parties.” 28 U.S.C. 1605(a)(6); Appendix (Pet. App.) 85a. This petition, however, presents the question from a different but complementary angle. While Blasket involves the foreign state’s legal authority to offer (consent) to arbitrate with investors from certain Contracting Parties under a multilateral investment treaty, this petition involves the legal authority of domestic investors to accept an offer to arbitrate under a bilateral investment treaty that by its terms extends only to foreign investors. Although Russia’s petition is independently certworthy, this Court would benefit from granting both petitions and hearing the cases together. That way it can conduct a 360-degree review of the relevant issues and fully resolve the existing circuit split on the question presented, which is: Whether Section 1605(a)(6) requires a court to determine, as a threshold jurisdictional matter, that the foreign state offered (consented) to arbitrate “with or for the benefit of a private party” such that an arbitration agreement exists between those parties.

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Joseph D. Pizzurro
Curtis, Mallet-Prevost, Colt & Mosle LLP

For respondent
Marney Leigh Cheek
Covington & Burling LLP

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 2 conferences

Proceedings

  1. Jun 29 2026
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Jun 24 2026
    Supplemental brief of respondents Stabil LLC, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  3. Jun 22 2026
    Supplemental brief of petitioner Russian Federation filed. (Distributed)
  4. Jun 09 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 6/25/2026.
  5. Apr 27 2026
    Rescheduled.
  6. Apr 15 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 5/1/2026.
  7. Apr 14 2026
    Waiver of the 14-day waiting period for the distribution of the petition pursuant to Rule 15.5 filed by petitioner.
  8. Apr 14 2026
    Reply of petitioner Russian Federation filed. (Distributed)
  9. Apr 10 2026
    Brief of respondents Stabil LLC, et al. in opposition filed.
  10. Mar 13 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due April 16, 2026)
  11. Mar 13 2026
    Motion expedite consideration of the petition for a writ of certiorari filed by petitioner Russian Federation.