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Arizona, et al. v. Promise Arizona, et al.

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, No. 24-4029 · judgment February 25, 2025


1%
estimated cert probability
(petition-stage, structural)
Conference-stage estimate: 24%
GVR risk 1%

Well below the 4.1% base rate, with no standout signals pointing toward a grant.

Questions presented

In 2022, Arizona enacted two laws to ensure that voters are United States citizens. Two nonprofit organizations sued, claiming that one of the laws was enacted with a discriminatory purpose. The district court held a trial, considered the factors outlined in Village of Arlington Heights v. Metropolitan Housing Development Corp., 429 U.S. 252, 266–68 (1977), and found no discriminatory purpose. A Ninth Circuit panel vacated this finding. First, the panel majority held that one of the organizations had standing to challenge the law on behalf of its members because an unknown number of unidentified members “may be” injured by the law. Next, the panel majority held that the district court misapplied Arlington Heights by failing to consider the “totality of circumstances” surrounding the laws. The panel majority stated: “We conclude that the totality of the circumstances suggests the Voting Laws were the product of intentional discrimination.” Judge Bumatay dissented. Eleven judges dissented from the denial of rehearing en banc. The Questions Presented are:

  1. Does Article III allow an organization to sue when an unknown number of its unidentified members “may be” injured, as the Ninth Circuit held below in conflict with at least seven other circuits?

  2. Did the Ninth Circuit improperly reweigh evidence of discriminatory purpose while purporting to review the district court’s finding for clear error?

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Joshua David Rothenberg Bendor
Office of the Arizona Attorney General

For respondent
David Robert Fox
Elias Law Group LLP

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 2 conferences

Amicus briefs
4 cert-stage

Linked docket
25A674

Proceedings

  1. Jun 22 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 6/25/2026.
  2. Jun 03 2026
    Reply of petitioners Arizona, et al. filed. (Distributed)
  3. Jun 02 2026
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 6/18/2026.
  4. Jun 01 2026
    Waiver of the 14-day waiting period for the distribution of the petition pursuant to Rule 15.5 filed by petitioners.
  5. May 26 2026
    Brief of respondent United States in opposition filed. VIDED.
  6. Mar 27 2026
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including May 26, 2026, for all respondents.
  7. Mar 27 2026
    Waiver of right of respondent Living United for Change in Arizona, et al. to respond filed.
  8. Mar 26 2026
    Waiver of right of respondents Mi Familia Vota and Voto Latino to respond filed.
  9. Mar 26 2026
    Motion of the Solicitor General to extend the time to file a response from March 27, 2026 to May 26, 2026, submitted to The Clerk.
  10. Mar 26 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Professor Michael T. Morley, et al. in support of neither party filed. VIDED.
  11. Mar 26 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Kansas, et al. filed. VIDED.
  12. Mar 26 2026
    Brief amicus curiae of Federation for American Immigration Reform filed. VIDED.
  13. Mar 26 2026
    Brief amici curiae of Arizona Free Enterprise Club, et al. filed. VIDED.
  14. Mar 24 2026
    Waiver of right of respondents Democratic National Committee and Arizona Democratic Party to respond filed.
  15. Mar 20 2026
    Waiver of right of respondents Promise Arizona, et al. to respond filed.
  16. Feb 19 2026
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due March 27, 2026)
  17. Dec 09 2025
    Application (25A674) granted by Justice Kagan extending the time to file until February 19, 2026.
  18. Dec 05 2025
    Application (25A674) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from December 21, 2025 to February 19, 2026, submitted to Justice Kagan.