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Raymond N. Bailey, Jr. v. Arkansas

Paid petition · Supreme Court of Arkansas, No. CR-23-697 · judgment May 16, 2024


Certiorari denied · January 21, 2025
Pre-decision estimate: 8% cert probability (95% interval 5%–11%)

Before the decision, about 1.9× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a circuit split argued in the petition, and a dissent in the court below (flagged in the petition), and down for a state or local-government respondent.

Question presented

More than 3.5 million people in the United States are subject to warrantless, suspicionless searches of their residences as a result of their probation or parole. Circuits and state supreme courts are split over the level of certainty government officials must have that a place is, in fact, the residence of a person subject to warrantless searches before officials may search it without a warrant. The Eighth Circuit, like several others, has held that the Fourth Amendment requires that government officials have probable cause to believe a place to be searched is, in fact, the residence of the person subject to a warrantless search before it may be searched without a warrant. In the decision below, the Supreme Court of Arkansas, which is a state in the Eighth Circuit, held that the Fourth Amendment does not require probable cause, but rather requires only reasonable suspicion. The question presented is: Whether a warrantless search violates the Fourth Amendment where, although a person’s residence is subject to warrantless search, the government lacks probable cause to believe that the place to be searched is, in fact, that person’s residence. (i)

Counsel of record

For petitioner
Andrew Timothy Tutt
Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer

For respondent
Nicholas Jacob Bronni
Solicitor General of Arkansas

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
3 cert-stage

Linked docket
24A72

Proceedings

  1. Jan 21 2025
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Dec 31 2024
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 1/17/2025.
  3. Dec 30 2024
    Reply of petitioner Raymond N. Bailey, Jr. filed. (Distributed)
  4. Dec 16 2024
    Brief of respondent Arkansas in opposition filed.
  5. Nov 15 2024
    Brief amicus curiae of Law Enforcement Action Partnership filed.
  6. Nov 15 2024
    Brief amicus curiae of Cato Institute filed.
  7. Nov 15 2024
    Brief amicus curiae of The Rutherford Institute filed.
  8. Oct 30 2024
    Motion to extend the time to file a response is granted and the time is extended to and including December 16, 2024.
  9. Oct 29 2024
    Motion to extend the time to file a response from November 15, 2024 to December 16, 2024, submitted to The Clerk.
  10. Oct 14 2024
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due November 15, 2024)
  11. Jul 22 2024
    Application (24A72) granted by Justice Kavanaugh extending the time to file until October 13, 2024.
  12. Jul 18 2024
    Application (24A72) to extend the time to file a petition for a writ of certiorari from August 14, 2024 to October 13, 2024, submitted to Justice Kavanaugh.