Supreme Court Report

Supreme Court of the United States · Official docket →

Andrew Dowd v. United States

Paid petition · United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, No. 23-6440, 23-6474, 23-6879 · judgment February 25, 2025


Certiorari denied · October 6, 2025
Pre-decision estimate: 6% cert probability (95% interval 4%–10%)

Before the decision, about 1.6× the 4.1% base rate. The model weighted this up for counsel who has won certiorari before, a Second Circuit decision below, and a petition filed soon after the judgment below.

Questions presented

  1. Whether a district judge impermissibly blends the judicial and prosecutorial roles such that “his impartiality might reasonably be questioned,” 28 U.S.C. § 455(a), where he repeatedly “urge[s] the government to continue their investigation” and “pursu[e]” certain “corrupt doctors” and then presides over the ensuing trial.

  2. Whether an appellate court may determine that an error at trial was harmless by evaluating only the strength of the government’s case and not the potential effect of the error on the jury.

  3. Whether a district court violates a criminal defendant’s due process rights when it imposes an $8 million restitution order based on the prosector’s off-thedocket email to chambers, without notifying the defendant when or how he should respond, and without even waiting the 14 days local rules provide for responses to motions filed on the public docket. (I)

Counsel of record

For petitioner
John Patrick Elwood
Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP

For respondent
D. John Sauer
Solicitor General

Case

Conference history
Distributed for 1 conference

Amicus briefs
1 cert-stage

Proceedings

  1. Oct 06 2025
    Petition DENIED.
  2. Jun 20 2025
    Brief amicus curiae of Cato Institute filed. (Distributed)
  3. Jun 17 2025
    DISTRIBUTED for Conference of 9/29/2025.
  4. Jun 10 2025
    Waiver of right of respondent United States to respond filed.
  5. May 30 2025
    Petition for a writ of certiorari filed. (Response due July 3, 2025)